Deeper than Masks: How COVID-19 Reshaped Student Enrollment in Atlanta Public Schools
By Taylor Luckadue Garcia, Education Consultant
Overview
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Atlanta Public Schools (APS) experienced significant shifts in student enrollment — changes that accelerated existing migration patterns and revealed critical insights about how families choose schools. As a fellow in Harvard’s Strategic Data Project Fellowship (SDP), I analyzed APS data to understand who is leaving the district, where students are going, and why families are making new enrollment decisions.
Using a combination of district data sources — including enrollment counts, direct certification for free and reduced-price lunch (FRL), College and Career Ready Performance Index (CCRPI), and application trends on the Apply APS Charter platform — this impact story provides a data-driven enrollment analysis designed to inform strategic planning and evidence-based solutions.
The Enrollment Challenge Facing Urban Districts
Like many urban school systems across the U.S., APS saw overall enrollment decline after COVID-19. Total district enrollment dropped from approximately 58,000 in school year (SY) 2019 to 54,000 in SY 2024, despite strong demand for APS-authorized charter schools. Meanwhile, the districtwide FRL rate shifted from roughly 74% to about 69%, signaling broader demographic and mobility dynamics affecting enrollment trends.
Key enrollment trends:
Significant declines in neighborhood high school enrollment
High demand and waitlists for APS-authorized charter schools
Shifting student population profiles across clusters
This pattern reflects both broader student enrollment trends nationally and the unique enrollment dynamics within Atlanta.
Why It Matters: Enrollment Decline Affects Funding & Equity
School funding for public districts is tied to full-time equivalent (FTE) enrollment. Sustained enrollment losses — especially midyear withdrawals — can disrupt classroom staffing, budget planning, and resource distribution. If left unaddressed, enrollment decline can disproportionately impact schools serving the highest-need students.
From a district enrollment strategy perspective, understanding why families leave and where they go is essential for improving retention and shaping future enrollment interventions.
Analyzing Enrollment Choices: Where and Why Students Leave APS
My analysis was guided by two central questions:
Where do APS-zoned students enroll when they opt out of APS?
Why are families choosing alternative schooling options — including charter, private, and virtual schools?
These questions acknowledge that student enrollment decisions are deeply connected to family perceptions of quality, fit, and access — not just raw numbers.
Charter Demand — A Clear Enrollment Signal
The Apply APS Charter system gives families access to multiple APS-authorized charter schools. In SY 2024, the platform received 5x the amount of applications than seats that were offered, illustrating the substantial unmet demand for charter seats within APS.
Nuance: High demand for specific school options must be factored into district recruitment and retention strategy.
Neighborhood School Trends: Beyond Test Scores and FRL
I focused on the three high schools with the largest enrollment declines from SY 2019 to SY 2024 ad gathered some key insights.
Key insights:
CCRPI performance did not directly explain enrollment declines.
Increases in direct certification were present but not solely predictive of mobility.
Other variables — such as perceived school quality, program fit, and alternative options — likely influenced family decisions.
This nuanced analysis underscores the value of data-driven enrollment solutions in understanding enrollment immersion beyond surface metrics.
Impact: What We Learned
APS neighborhood schools are losing students even as charter school demand remains extremely high.
Traditional performance indicators like CCRPI and direct certification are not sufficient to explain enrollment patterns alone.
Students who leave APS are not simply shifting to other neighborhood schools, suggesting deeper issues in choice and retention.
Recommendations for District Enrollment Strategy
To address enrollment decline and strengthen retention, I recommend:
1. Enhanced Data Collection & Analysis
Conduct census-block-level enrollment analysis across all grades.
Improve withdrawal code accuracy to better understand family reasons for leaving.
Implement exit surveys for families who withdraw from APS.
2. Strategic Collaboration Between Schools
Encourage collaborative programming between APS-authorized charter schools and neighborhood schools. This can help:
Increase program offerings districtwide
Strengthen school fit for families
Reduce enrollment loss to alternative sectors
